收藏本站
收藏 | 投稿 | 手机打开
二维码
手机客户端打开本文

OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 2:FORECASTS BY OPERATIONAL AGENCIES

Joseph B.Courtney  Sébastien Langlade  Stephen Barlow  Thomas Birchard  John A.Knaff  S.D.Kotal  Tarik Kriat  Woojeong Lee  Richard Pasch  Charles R.Sampson  Udai Shimada  Amit Singh  
【摘要】:This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges.It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future.

知网文化
【相似文献】
中国期刊全文数据库 前17条
1 Biao Zhao;Fangli Qiao;Guansuo Wang;;The effects of the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing on the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks[J];Chinese Science Bulletin;2014年24期
2 钟元 ,胡波;AN OBJECTIVE PREDICTION SCHEME FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS IN EASTERN CHINA[J];Journal of Tropical Meteorology;2002年01期
3 SUZANA J.CAMARGO;JOANNE CAMP;RUSSELL L.ELSBERRY;PAUL A.GREGORY;PHILIP J.KLOTZBACH;CARL J.SCHRECK Ⅲ;ADAM H.SOBEL;MICHAEL J.VENTRICE;FREDERIC VITART;ZHUO WANG;MATTHEW C.WHEELER;MUNEHIKO YAMAGUCHI;RUIFEN ZHAN;;TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION ON SUBSEASONAL TIME-SCALES[J];Tropical Cyclone Research and Review;2019年03期
4 QIAN WANG;YINGLONG XU;NA WEI;SHUAI WANG;HAO HU;;FORECAST AND SERVICE PERFORMANCE ON RAPIDLY INTENSIFICATION PROCESS OF TYPHOONS RAMMASUN(2014) AND HATO(2017)[J];Tropical Cyclone Research and Review;2019年01期
5 CHIASHI MUROI;;BRIEF HISTORY AND RECENT ACTIVITIES OF RSMC TOKYO-TYPHOON CENTRE[J];Tropical Cyclone Research and Review;2018年01期
6 JOSEPH B.COURTNEY;SEBASTIEN LANGLADE;CHARLES R.SAMPSON;JOHN A.KNAFF;THOMAS BIRCHARD;STEPHEN BARLOW;S.D.KOTAL;TARIK KRIAT;WOOJEONG LEE;RICHARD PASCH;UDAI SHIMADA;;OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 1:RECENT ADVANCES IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE[J];Tropical Cyclone Research and Review;2019年03期
7 Chenxi WANG;Zhihua ZENG;Ming YING;;Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Predictions due to Uncertainty in Initial Conditions[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2020年03期
8 LINUS MAGNUSSON;JAMES D.DOYLE;WILLIAM A.KOMAROMI;RYAN D.TORN;CHI KIT TANG;JOHNNY C.L.CHAN;MUNEHIKO YAMAGUCHI;FUQING ZHANG;;ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING DIFFICULT CASES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTS[J];Tropical Cyclone Research and Review;2019年03期
9 王舒畅;赵军;吴建平;曹小群;;NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INFLUENCE OF STRATOSPHERIC METHANE ON TROPICAL WATER VAPOR AND TEMPERATURE[J];Journal of Tropical Meteorology;2017年01期
10 Michael H.Glantz;;Shades of Chaos: Lessons Learned About Lessons Learned About Forecasting El Nio and Its Impacts[J];International Journal of Disaster Risk Science;2015年01期
11 周霞琼;陈仲良;;Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Baroclinic Model[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2006年03期
12 CHU Peter;Impact on the tropical cyclone "Vongfong" forecast using the QuikSCAT wind data[J];Acta Oceanologica Sinica;2004年03期
13 周非凡;穆穆;;The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2012年01期
14 QIN Xiaohao;MU Mu;;Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2014年02期
15 Lanqiang BAI;Zhiyong MENG;Kenta SUEKI;Guixing CHEN;Ruilin ZHOU;;Climatology of tropical cyclone tornadoes in China from 2006 to 2018[J];Science China(Earth Sciences);2020年01期
16 ZHOU Xuan;YANG XiaoFeng;LI ZiWei;YU Yang;BI HaiBo;MA Sheng;LI XiaoFeng;;Estimation of tropical cyclone parameters and wind fields from SAR images[J];Science China(Earth Sciences);2013年11期
17 ;Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific[J];Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences);2008年03期
中国重要会议论文全文数据库 前10条
1 XiaoJing Jia;Hai Lin;June-Yi Lee;Bin Wang;;Season-dependent forecast skill of the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Pacific and North American region[A];创新驱动发展 提高气象灾害防御能力——S6短期气候预测理论、方法与技术[C];2013年
2 LIANG Ping;LIN Hai;Ding Yihui;;Dominant Modes of Subseasonal Variability of East Asian Summertime Surface Air Temperature and Their Predictions[A];第35届中国气象学会年会 S2 副热带气象及其生态环境影响[C];2018年
3 ;Improving the behavior of the cumulus parameterization for tropical cyclone prediction: Convection trigger[A];第七届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文集[C];2010年
4 Jinfeng Yang;Haoren Wang;;Positioning Tropical Cyclone Center in a Single Satellite Image Using Vector Field Analysis[A];2013年中国智能自动化学术会议论文集(第二分册)[C];2013年
5 黄平;黄荣辉;;Delayed atmospheric temperature response to ENSO SST:Role of high SST and the western Pacific[A];第七次全国动力气象学术会议论文摘要[C];2009年
6 ;Increasing Duration of Tropical Cyclones over China[A];第28届中国气象学会年会——S12热带气旋[C];2011年
7 Annette Rinke;Klaus Dethloff;Moritz Mielke;;Climate and forecast mode simulations for Antarctica:Implications for temperature and wind-a case study for Davis station 2007[A];第26届中国气象学会年会冰冻圈与极地气象分会场论文集[C];2009年
8 Ping Liang;Hai Lin;;Extended range forecast over East Asia during boreal summer using the ECCC monthly forecasting system[A];第34届中国气象学会年会 S2 副热带季风与极端天气气候事件论文集[C];2017年
9 YUAN JunPeng;CAO Jie;;North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activities influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole mode[A];第八届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文汇编[C];2014年
10 ;Tropical Cyclone Initialization with Dynamical Retrieval from a modified UWPBL Model[A];第七届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文集[C];2010年
中国知网广告投放
 快捷付款方式  订购知网充值卡  订购热线  帮助中心
  • 400-819-9993
  • 010-62982499
  • 010-62783978