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Science and Prediction of Heavy Rainfall over China: Research Progress since the Reform and Opening-Up of New China

Yali LUO  Jisong SUN  Ying LI  Rudi XIA  Yu DU  Shuai YANG  Yuanchun ZHANG  Jing CHEN  Kan DAI  Xueshun SHEN  Haoming CHEN  Feifan ZHOU  Yimin LIU  Shenming FU  Mengwen WU  Tiangui XIAO  Yangruixue CHEN  Huiqi LI  Mingxin LI  
【摘要】:This paper reviews the major progress on development of the science and prediction of heavy rainfall over China since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of new China(roughly between 1980 and 2019). The progress of research on the physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall over China is summarized from three perspectives: 1) the relevant synoptic weather systems, 2) heavy rainfall in major sub-regions of China, and 3) heavy rainfall induced by typhoons. The development and application of forecasting techniques for heavy rainfall are summarized in terms of numerical weather prediction techniques and objective forecasting methods. Greatly aided by the rapid progress in meteorological observing technology and substantial improvement in electronic computing, studies of heavy rainfall in China have advanced to investigating the evolution of heavy-rain-producing storms and observational analysis of the cloud microphysical features. A deeper and more systematic understanding of the synoptic systems of importance to the production of heavy rainfall has also been developed. Operational forecast of heavy rainfall in China has changed from subjective weather event forecasts to a combination of both subjective and objective quantitative precipitation forecasts, and is now advancing toward probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with the provision of forecast uncertainty information.

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