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Climate Prediction and Diagnostic Analysis of Typhoon Precipitation in Midsummer of Yongzhou

Zhiyu LONG  Wei FU  Shen LIU  Yuwen ZHOU  
【摘要】:By consulting the typhoon yearbook and restoring the historical weather chart,technical separation of typhoon precipitation in Yongzhou from July to September of 1981-2015 was conducted. On this basis,climatic characteristics of typhoon precipitation in midsummer of Yongzhou were analyzed,and climate prediction and diagnostic analysis were carried out. The research results showed that typhoon precipitation was an important component of midsummer precipitation in Yongzhou,but its contribution to total precipitation was not as much as precipitation of the westerly belt system. When the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high was northward,typhoon precipitation was more than westerly precipitation in midsummer of Yongzhou;when the subtropical high was southward,there were more patterns of westerly precipitation year; when the subtropical high was normally northward,typhoon precipitation and westerly precipitation were less,with more dry years. In summer,abnormal cold sea surface temperature( SST) in tidal zone and warm pool zone of western Pacific and abnormal warm SST in Nino Z zone( strong El Nino event) were favorable for that the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high was southward,and there were more patterns of westerly precipitation year in midsummer of Yongzhou. On the contrary,when subtropical high was northward or normally northerly,there was less westerly precipitation. In non La Nina years when the subtropical high was northward,most of them were typhoon precipitation years. In La Nina years when the subtropical high was northward,most of them were dry years.

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