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Integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system based on a non-linear information dynamics model

【摘要】:This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective. According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics, a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system. Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method, a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established. The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system. The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution. Meanwhile, a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm. The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China mainland. The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.

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