收藏本站
收藏 | 投稿 | 手机打开
二维码
手机客户端打开本文

Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction:implication for targeted observation

ZHOU Qian  DUAN Wansuo  HU Junya  
【摘要】:Based on initial errors of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean that are most likely to induce spring predictability barrier(SPB) for the El Nino prediction,the sensitive area of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction starting from January is identified using the CESM1.0.3(Community Earth System Model),a fully coupled global climate model.The sensitive area locates mainly in the subsurface of eastern Indian Ocean.The effectiveness of applying targeted observation in the sensitive area is also evaluated in an attempt to improve the El Nino prediction skill.The results of sensitivity experiments indic ate that if initial errors exist only in the tropic al Indian Ocean,applying targeted observation in the sensitive area in the Indian Ocean can significantly improve the El Nino prediction.In particular,for SPB-related El Nino events,when initial errors of sea temperature exist both in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean,which is much closer to the realistic predictions,if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Pacific,the prediction skills of SPB-related El Nino events can be improved by 20.3% in general.Moreover,if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean in addition,the improvement of prediction skill can be increased by 25.2%.Considering the volume of sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean is about 1/3 of that in the tropical Pacific Ocean,the prediction skill improvement per cubic kilometer in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean is competitive to that of the tropical Pacific Ocean.Additional to the sensitive area of the tropical Pacific Ocean,sensitive area of the tropical Indian Ocean is also a very effective and cost-saving area for the application of targeted observations to improve El Nino forecast skills.

知网文化
【相似文献】
中国期刊全文数据库 前17条
1 Brian H.Tang;Juan Fang;Alicia Bentley;Gerard Kilroy;Masuo Nakano;Myung-Sook Park;V.P.M.Rajasree;Zhuo Wang;Allison A.Wing;Liguang Wu;;Recent advances in research on tropical cyclogenesis[J];Tropical Cyclone Research and Review;2020年02期
2 GAO Pan;ZHANG XiaoHong;XU XiaoHua;;Variability features of the width of the tropical belt from COSMIC radio occultation data[J];Science China(Earth Sciences);2016年04期
3 MA ShuangMei;ZHOU TianJun;;Changes of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation simulated by two versions of FGOALS model[J];Science China(Earth Sciences);2014年09期
4 ;Two modes of dipole events in tropical Indian Ocean[J];Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences);2009年03期
5 ;The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea[J];Acta Oceanologica Sinica;2007年04期
6 郭品文,田红,刘宣飞;Tropical Convective Activities Related to Summer Rainfall Anomaly in China[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2000年01期
7 蒋尚城,叶谦,杨喜峰,安刚;Climatological Features of the Global Tropical Subsidence Region Based on Satellite Observations[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2000年03期
8 林永辉,巢纪平;The processes of tropical semi-geostrophic adaptation[J];Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences);1998年01期
9 ;Seasonal Variations in the Vertical Structure of Water Vapor Optical Depth in the Lower Troposphere over a Tropical Station[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;1997年03期
10 YU Yang;DONG Changming;SHAN Haixia;ZOU Bin;;Statistical analysis of intensity variations in tropical cyclones in the East China Sea passing over the Kuroshio[J];Journal of Oceanology and Limnology;2020年06期
11 LIAN Tao;CHEN DaKe;TANG YouMin;JIN BaoGang;;A theoretical investigation of the tropical Indo-Pacific tripole mode[J];Science China(Earth Sciences);2014年01期
12 Lee Yit Leng;Osumanu Haruna Ahmed;Mohamadu Boyie Jalloh;;Brief review on climate change and tropical peatlands[J];Geoscience Frontiers;2019年02期
13 ;Seasonal variability of tropical cyclones generated over the South China Sea[J];Acta Oceanologica Sinica;2007年04期
14 ;Sensitivity of simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillations to cumulus schemes[J];Science China(Earth Sciences);2011年11期
15 Yifan Ding;Jiping Liu;Shengzhe Chen;Xiao Cheng;Zhaojun Zheng;;Uniqueness of Lekima compared to tropical cyclones landed in the east coast of China during 1979–2019[J];Acta Oceanologica Sinica;2020年08期
16 ZHANG Zhixiang;LIU Lingling;WANG Fan;;Oceanic barrier layer variation induced by tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific[J];Journal of Oceanology and Limnology;2019年02期
17 ;Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific[J];Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences);2008年03期
中国重要会议论文全文数据库 前20条
1 Jinfeng Yang;Haoren Wang;;Positioning Tropical Cyclone Center in a Single Satellite Image Using Vector Field Analysis[A];2013年中国智能自动化学术会议论文集(第二分册)[C];2013年
2 ;Increasing Duration of Tropical Cyclones over China[A];第28届中国气象学会年会——S12热带气旋[C];2011年
3 ;Improving the behavior of the cumulus parameterization for tropical cyclone prediction: Convection trigger[A];第七届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文集[C];2010年
4 黄平;黄荣辉;;Delayed atmospheric temperature response to ENSO SST:Role of high SST and the western Pacific[A];第七次全国动力气象学术会议论文摘要[C];2009年
5 YUAN JunPeng;CAO Jie;;North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activities influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole mode[A];第八届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文汇编[C];2014年
6 ;A Theory for Mixed Vortex Rossby- Gravity Waves in Tropical Cyclones[A];第七次全国动力气象学术会议论文摘要[C];2009年
7 ;Tropical Cyclone Initialization with Dynamical Retrieval from a modified UWPBL Model[A];第七届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文集[C];2010年
8 ;Strengthening of tropical Indian Ocean teleconnection to the Northwest Pacific since the mid-1970s: An atmospheric GCM study[A];第七届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文集[C];2010年
9 Yuan Sun;Zhong Zhong;Wei Lu;Yijia Hu;;Why Are Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Sensitive to the Cumulus Parameterization Scheme in Regional Climate Modeling? A Case Study for Megi(2010)[A];第32届中国气象学会年会S4 东亚气候变异成因和预测[C];2015年
10 Yao Ha;Zhong Zhong;;The Relationship Between Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone And Intraseasonal Oscillation Over South China Sea In the Past 40 Years[A];创新驱动发展 提高气象灾害防御能力——S13热带海洋气象[C];2013年
11 Yuxing Yang;Ruihuang Xie;Faming Wang;Fei Huang;;Impacts of decaying eastern and central Pacific El Ni?os on tropical cyclone activities over the western North Pacific in summer[A];第33届中国气象学会年会 S6 东亚气候变异与极端事件及其预测[C];2016年
12 ;Variations of Latent Heat Flux During Tropical Cyclones over the South China Sea[A];2009年海峡两岸气象科学技术研讨会论文集[C];2009年
13 ;Interannual Changes of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific[A];第28届中国气象学会年会——S12热带气旋[C];2011年
14 李春晖;万齐林;郑彬;谷德军;林爱兰;;COMPARISON STUDY ON THE INTRASEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CIRCULATIONS AND PRECIPITATION MODULATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA-WESTERN PACIFIC DURING GUANGDONG FLOODING PERIOD[A];S2 短期气候预测[C];2012年
15 S.Masson;T.Yamagata;;Spatial Patterns of Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and Its Numerical Simulation[A];中国气象学会2007年年会气候学分会场论文集[C];2007年
16 Yuan Sun;Zhong Zhong;Lan Yi;Yao Ha;Yimei Sun;;The Opposite Effects of Inner and Outer Sea Surface Temperature on Tropical Cyclone Intensity[A];第32届中国气象学会年会S1 灾害天气监测、分析与预报[C];2015年
17 Bin Wang;;Subtropical High Predictability Establishes a Promising Way for Monsoon and Tropical Storm Predictions[A];第八次全国动力气象学术会议论文摘要[C];2013年
18 丁菊丽;费建芳;黄小刚;程小平;胡晓华;;Observational Occurrence of Tropical Cyclone Ducts from GPS Dropsonde Data[A];创新驱动发展 提高气象灾害防御能力——S4卫星资料在中小尺度天气分析中的应用[C];2013年
19 Peihua Qin;Zhenghui Xie;;Precipitation extremes in the dry and wet regions of China and their connections with the sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean[A];第34届中国气象学会年会 S7 水文气象、地质灾害气象预报理论与应用技术论文集[C];2017年
20 王小玲;吴立广;任福民;王咏梅;李维京;;Influences of Tropical Cyclones on China During 1965-2004[A];2008年北京气象学会科技优秀论文集[C];2008年
中国知网广告投放
 快捷付款方式  订购知网充值卡  订购热线  帮助中心
  • 400-819-9993
  • 010-62982499
  • 010-62783978