| | | | | 我国资本流出的效应分析 | | | 文彬 | | | 由于预期人民币步入升值轨道,短期资本大量流入,资本项目顺差推动我国储备资产激增。货币政策进退维谷:降低利率虽能缓解人民币升值的压力,却有诱发通胀之虑。显然,增加国际收支借方项目降低储备才是权宜之计。因此,允许合规资本自由流出,是目前我国外汇管理的必然选择。全面评估资本流出可能产生的货币供给、价格及国际收支效应,是有效管理资本流动的必然要求。
【作者单位】：广东商学院金融系 广东广州510320
【关键词】：资本流出;效应评估;货币政策
【分类号】：F224
【DOI】：cnki:ISSN:1008-018X.0.2006-02-013
【正文快照】：
资本流动有如一把双刃剑。在短时间大规模资本流入,会导致一国外汇市场乃至经济动荡;而短时间大规模资本流出,亦将诱发一国的本币贬值、货币供给下降,进而提升利率,抑制国内总需求、就业及国民收入亦会下降。一般说来,发展中国家普遍面临资金匮乏和本币贬值的压力,为了提升经济的发展水平和稳定国内经济,需要借入国外资金。往往实施“宽进严出”的资本不对称管制,以增进引资福利、降低引资成本。但是,在一国面临国际收支持续顺差、外汇储备快速增长已冲击国内经济均衡时,资本管理政策必然面临转向的压力。正确评估资本流出对一国经济的影响,… | | |  推荐 CAJ下载  PDF下载 | | | CAJViewer7.0阅读器支持所有CNKI文件格式，AdobeReader仅支持PDF格式 | | | | Effect Analysis of Capital Flight Out of China | | | WEN Bin(Monetary Department;Guang Dong University of Business;Guangzhou 510320;China) | | | It was predicted that RMB would step into up-valuation,so short-term capital flushed into China,which made our deposit capital increase radically with favorable balance in capital and brought our currency policy into dilemma.Decreasing the interest rate can relieve the pressure of up-valuation but may induce deflation,so it is a better policy to let legal capital fly out freely to decrease the deposit amount in foreign currency control.Giving a whole evaluation of the influence of capital flight-out on currency supply,price and international revenue and expenditure is the necessary requirement of effective capital management.
【Keyword】：capital flight-out;effect analysis;currency policy |
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