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Towards an objective historical tropical cyclone dataset for the Australian region

Joseph B.Courtney  ANDrew D.Burton  Christopher S.Velden  Timothy L.OlANDer  Elizabeth A.Ritchie  Clair Stark  Leon Majewski  
【摘要】:The appropriate design of infrastructure in tropical cyclone(TC) prone regions requires an understanding of the hazard risk profile underpinned by an accurate, homogenous long-term TC dataset. The existing Australian region TC archive, or 'best track'(BT), suffers from inhomogeneities and an incomplete long-term record of key TC parameters. This study assesses mostly satellite-based objective techniques for 1981-2016, the period of a geostationary satellite imagery dataset corrected for navigation and calibration issues. The satellite-based estimates of Australian-region TCs suffer from a general degradation in the 1981 -1988 period owing to lower quality and availability of satellite imagery.The quality of the objective techniques for both intensity and structure is compared to the reference BT 2003-2016 estimates. For intensity the Advanced Dvorak Technique algorithm corresponds well with the BT 2003-2016, when the algorithm can use passive microwave data(PMW) as an input. For the period prior to 2003 when PMW data is unavailable, the intensity algorithm has a low bias. Systematic corrections were made to the non-PMW objective estimates to produce an extended(1989-2016) homogeneous dataset of maximum wind that has sufficient accuracy to be considered for use where a larger homogeneous sample size is valued over a shorter more accurate period of record. An associated record of central pressure using the Courtney-Knaff-Zehr wind pressure relationship was created.For size estimates, three techniques were investigated: the Deviation Angle Variance and the 'Knaff' techniques(IR-based), while the 'Lok' technique used model information(ECMWF reanalysis dataset and TC vortex specification from ACCESS-TC). However, results lacked sufficient skill to enable extension of the reliable period of record. The availability of scatterometer data makes the BT 2003-2016 dataset the most reliable and accurate. Recommendations regarding the best data source for each parameter for different periods of the record are summarised.

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