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LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

魏晓雯  梁萍  吴慧  
【摘要】:Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn(referred to as EHRPs) and 10-30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10-30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the"north high(cold), south low(warm)"pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough,consequently leading to EHRPs. With the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs being considered, a low-frequency wave train index(LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015-2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8-24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.

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