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Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia

GONG ZhiQiang  ZHAO JunHu  FENG GuoLin  CHOU JiFan  
【摘要】:Based on the 1983~2011 CMAP data,the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions(hereafter called East Asia for short) demonstrates the "+-+" pattern before 1999 and the "-+-" pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component.However,the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different,which reveal the "+-+-" pattern before 1999 and the "-+-+" pattern afterwards.Meanwhile,the probability of improving NCC_CGCM's forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed,and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia.The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM's decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia(especially in the area of 30°N–55°N).The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area,and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas,which are better than NCC_CGCM's system error correction results(ACC is -0.01 and ACR is 49%).Besides,the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the "+-+" pattern before 1999 and the "-+-" pattern afterwards.

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