Prognostic factors for chronic severe hepatitis and construction of a prognostic model
【摘要】：BACKGROUND: Chronic severe hepatitis is a serious illness with a high mortality rate. Discussion of prognostic judgment criteria for chronic severe hepatitis is of great value in clinical guidance. This study was designed to investigate the clinical and laboratory indices affecting the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis and construct a prognostic model. METHODS: The clinical and laboratory indices of 213 patients with chronic severe hepatitis within 24 hours after diagnosis were analyzed retrospectively. Death or survival was limited to within 3 months after diagnosis. RESULTS: The mortality of all patients was 47.42%. Compared with the survival group, the age, basis of hepatocirrhosis, infection, degree of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and the levels of total bilirubin (TBil), total cholesterol (CHO), cholinesterase (CHE), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), blood creatinine (Cr), blood sodium ion (Na), peripheral blood leukocytes (WBC), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR) of blood coagulation and prothrombin time (PT) were significantly different in the group who died, but the levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin (ALB) and hemoglobin (HGB) were not different between the two groups. At the same time, a regression model, Logit (P)=1.573×Age+1.338× HE-1.608×CHO+0.011×Cr-0.109×Na+1.298×INR+11.057, was constructed by logistic regression analysis and the prognostic value of the model was higher than that of the MELD score.CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate analysis excels univariate anlysis in the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis, and the regression model is of significant value in the prognosis of this disease.