| | | | | 房价与地价关系研究:模型及中国数据检验 | | | 况伟大 | | | 本文通过构建一个线形城市的住房市场和土地市场模型,分别就Cournot 空间竞争和规制情形,探讨了房价和地价关系。本文的基本结论是:规制情形下的房价和地价高于无规制情形下的房价和地价;在供大于求时,房价与地价成线性负相关关系;在供小于求时,房价与地价成线性正相关关系;房价与地价Granger 因果关系检验表明,短期内房价和地价相互影响,长期内地价是房价的Granger 因。因此,要将房价降下来,短期内,一方面应增加土地供给,另一方面应控制房价和地价过快上涨;在长期,主要应抑制地价的过快上涨。
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所
【关键词】：空间竞争;房价;地价
【基金】：中国社会科学院财贸所青年基金课题《房价与地价关系研究》的最终成果
【分类号】：F293.3;
【DOI】：cnki:ISSN:1002-8102.0.2005-11-016
【正文快照】：
一、问题的提出 近年来,中国许多城市出现了房价快速上涨的现象。不断上涨的房价,一方面使这些城市的房 价收人比过高,居民支付能力下降;另一方面可能引发房地产泡沫,危害经济发展。因此,弄清房价 的形成机制以及如何将房价降下来,成为中央政府和经济学家关注的焦点问题。对于房价的形成 机制,一种观点认为,高房价是由高地价造成的。例如,徐艳(2002)认为土地费用过高是北京房价 过高的主要原因;杨慎(2003)、包宗华(2004)认为地价大幅上涨必然造成房价大幅度提高。因此, 该观点的政策含义为,要降低房价必须降低地价。另一种观点认为,房价是由… | | |  推荐 CAJ下载  PDF下载 | | | CAJViewer7.0阅读器支持所有CNKI文件格式，AdobeReader仅支持PDF格式 | | | | A Study on the Relationship Between Housing Pricing and Land Pricing:Basic Model and Evidence from China | | | KUANG Weida (Institute of Finance and Trade Economics;CASS;100836) | | | This paper examines the impacts of the site-scale of real estate developers,vacant land ratio and Floor Area Rate on housing pricing,land pricing and the relationship between them.It analyzes two cases of Cournot Competition and regulation respectively by developing a linear city model for housing market and land market The fundamental conclusions are as follows;(i)the housing price is the decreasing function of Floor Area Rate;(ii)housing price and land price are the increasing function of vacant land ratio;(iii)housing price is the increasing function of the site-scale of real estate developers;(iv)housing price and land price under regulations are higher than those without regulations;(v)the correlation between housing price and land price is negative when there exists excessive supply of land;(vi)the correlation between housing price and land price is positive when there exists scarce supply of land;(vii)Granger causality test of the housing price and land price demonstrates that,when there exists scarce supply of land,housing price interacts with the land price in the short run,and land price is the Granger cause of the housing price in the long run.In order to curb the rigid housing price,the following policies are required.Firstly,the government should increase the supply of land including moderating the proper Floor Area Ratio and control housing price and land price in- crease drastically in the short run.Secondly,the government should prevent t land price from increasing sharply in the long run.
【Keyword】：Spatial Competition;Housing Pricing;Land Pricing |
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